More On Necho

I wrote, "[Tools] will have to compete much more on price and user functionality to differentiate themselves. This will be good for me, the user, as prices will fall (precipitiously) but it may end up acting against the best interests of the parties now developing Necho."

Anil asks, "How so? Having to make a better tool seems like a good deal for us."

Of course it is. It still seems to be a bind though.

I don't use AOL or MSN but if I did I may think twice about spending an extra fee for the use of, say Moveable Type, when I could get potentially all of the same functionality through my existing subscription with AOL or MSN.

I am currently wedded to both Blogger and Userland. I would like to be able to migrate my entire post structure off of these systems but right now I can't. (At least not without a lot of work I don't have the time for) At the end of the road with Necho I should be able to completely migrate my entire post structure off of those vendors' tools to any other tool which supports it. If MoveableType allowed me to do that easily through TypePad for instance you'd have my revenue immediately. On the other hand if my ISP begins offering the same service as enhanced value on my preexisting bill then I would move away from TypePad.

Currently the aquisition costs for my dollar have been paid and there is the potential for more revenue from me. But if Blogger goes with Necho and I move away there is no chance of future revenue unless they can lure me back through either price cuts or value based functionality improvements different from their competitors. If all of these functionality improvements are conceivably available through the Necho spec itself then unique improvements will be difficult to develop, if at all. Not that it won't happen but I think there is a strong indication this will leave price as the main arena of competition.

When this is applied against a perceived cost of zero through a service like MSN or AOL it will put tremendous pressure on the blogging price point. I would suggest this will have significant effects on the bottom line of toolmakers as churn will drastically raise the cost of customer aquisition.

It looks, from my vantage today, that the future for tool makers is to be hope to be bought out before posts actually do become fungible. (Currently blogs themselves are fungible, entry cost is negligible but posts are not fungible.) When that happens it will drastically change the way the money flows in the blogosphere. It may end up being good for a smaller set of vendors than currently exist or it may result in a complete collapse of those currently serving as vendors but something will definitely have to change if the inertia that comes from a lack of interop is taken off the table.

I could be wrong, happens all the time. The whole situation reminds me of sometime in, I think (scratches head - getting old), 1998 sitting in the office of a friend's ISP. He showed me this great free browser from Microsoft that he was installing on all his customers' desktops. It came with his business home page on it, he could keep his customers up to date, he didn't have to worry about any costs involved for his customers through the use of fee product Netscape, he could charge local businesses for the adverts on the start page he managed, he could make it part of the install of his service, and he had nifty tools from Microsoft to help him manage all of this and get those browsers on those desktops.

UPDATE It looks like I'm not the only one who has been thinking along these lines:

The one thing that interests me about the API section of the Echo effort, however, is the effect it will have on the weblogging companies themselves. SixApart, Blogger and LiveJournal have already signed up, which brings the vast majority of active bloggers. Blosxom support will come as sure as day follows night, and we might even see Userland join in too. Given enough will, everyone could be embracing the same API - which would be marvellous for the user, but completely disastrous for many of the weblogging companies. An API that can transfer entries from one system to another without fuss would introduce a frictionless market to weblog tools. If the market can move entries from Radio to Movable Type to Blogger and back again without losing anything, then the market will naturally gravitate towards the combination of the best and the cheapest. Until now, doing so would have cost time and effort, but given a complete Echo spec, the launch of a new product could gut a lesser rival's customer base in a matter of hours. Tools to allow this will emerge, I can guarantee it. Certain companies had better start looking at providing a whole load more features that can't be transferred via the standards they so crave - lest the CMS they charge for today becomes a valueless commodity through their own success tomorrow.

Comments

[Steve Hoooker]

"price as the main arena of competition"

If I buy a car, I don't necessarily go for the cheapest, if I buy a bar of soap, I don't buy just the cheapest.

There's a lot of reasons and values that are important to me when I buy stuff. Sure, on the 'net everybody's after the free.

I've been blogging for a long time, and I'd be pissed off if I had to make do with a mini. I want a Rolls Royce, or a nice Jag. As time goes on, there'll be manufacturers who make cheap stuff, and those that make class.

(Could do with some wrapping in this text area.)

[filchyboy]

Obviously you are correct. My point speaks to market consolidation and my impression that Necho might be a juncture of some importance towards this consolidation.

And yes you are correct about that text wrapping. Yuck!